Professor Xueqin Jiang, sometimes called the “Chinese Nostradamus,” has issued a warning about a possible conflict between the United States and Iran. He predicts that such a war could become extremely difficult for the United States and might even lead to defeat after a long struggle. According to Jiang, the conflict would not be short or straightforward but could turn into a drawn-out and exhausting confrontation.
Jiang believes the United States could fall into what he calls a “20-year trap.” In his view, Iran has spent decades preparing for a different kind of warfare. Instead of focusing mainly on large traditional armies, the country has developed strategies based on endurance, flexibility, and indirect pressure against stronger opponents.
A major part of this strategy involves drones, missiles, and decentralized military systems. These weapons are far less expensive than the advanced defense systems used by larger powers but can still create continuous pressure. Because of their lower cost, they can be produced and deployed more easily in large numbers.
This creates what Jiang describes as a strategic imbalance. Missile defense systems and interceptors used by powerful militaries can cost millions of dollars each, while the drones or rockets they intercept may cost only a small fraction of that amount. Over time, Jiang argues, this economic gap could become more important than technological superiority.
He also warns that the effects of such a conflict would extend beyond the battlefield. Important infrastructure across the Middle East, including oil facilities and shipping routes, could be disrupted or targeted during a prolonged confrontation.
One of the biggest concerns is the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global energy shipments. Instability in this area could interrupt oil supplies, increase prices, and cause economic shocks worldwide. While Jiang’s prediction remains uncertain, his analysis highlights a growing belief among analysts that modern wars may be decided not only by military strength but also by endurance, economics, and adaptability.
